National Election 2017 Pre-election Analysis

Adam I, Editor

ADAMSVILLE, Primoria – In mere hours, the people of the Empire will be going to the polls. In this piece, we will be analysing the strengths and weaknesses of each candidate, the quality of their party’s manifesto, and their performance in the interviews we published a short while ago. Bearing all this in mind, combined with historical election data from 2013-2016 and our personal knowledge of the residents of each of Adammia’s territorial subdivisions, we will be predicting how each province, colony and territory will vote tomorrow, and who stands the best chance of winning. Will Labour’s Sir Paul McKenna hang on to power for a second term? Will Moderate candidate Emperor Mother Jayne make a triumphant return to the premiership? Or will the Liberal Party’s Prince Jake – the first ever candidate for Adammia’s oldest political party – cause an upset?

Over the past two years since their formation, the Labour Party of Adammia have continued to surprise punters. Last August, they managed to get one of their own into the office of Prime Minister for the first time in history. Sir Paul McKenna’s term has mainly been notable for being possibly the most uneventful in Adammic history, and there haven’t been too many events – positive or negative – to impact McKenna’s reputation. Therefore, it is the election campaign itself which will determine his chances.

The big news of this election is that, for the first time ever, a third candidate is standing – the Liberal Party have finally been able to field an eligible candidate after Prince Jake reached the minimum age requirement of 12 years. This will undoubtedly split the votes of the big two parties of the past two years, but the big question is who will be affected most? As we will shortly discuss, it is Labour’s McKenna who is most at risk of losing votes to the Liberals, potentially handing a victory to the Moderates. As a result, the onus is on him to keep the premiership in Labour’s hands.

For the most part, McKenna is a practical, sensible politician. However, this year, his campaign has become more bold and has stepped up the rhetoric. A line in the Labour manifesto about schools first raised eyebrows – Adammia does not have a school system, but McKenna described the policy as “ideological”. His recent interview with the Adammic Express gave a much clearer indication that McKenna may be trying to avoid the caricature of the “boring” candidate by being deliberately controversial. Many of his statements in the first half of his interview were clear references to US President Donald Trump. It seems reasonable to assume that these comments were supposed to mock Trump rather than be taken seriously, but we will let the reader decide whether that is truly the case. Overall, McKenna has presented himself with competence and he has a decent support base of traditional Labour voters, but his party’s manifesto is the shortest out of the three, and his interview’s less-than-serious tone could easily backfire. Following the less-than-serious answers in the first half of his interview, his later answers portrayed him as a pragmatic, centrist candidate. However, this means he will be fighting for political ground with the similarly centrist Moderates and even the “radical centrist” Liberals – will he have done enough to distingish himself from them?

Then we come to the Emperor Mother Jayne Belcher. Elected Prime Minister in 2013, 2014 and 2015, she is by far the most experienced candidate on offer. The Moderate Party support base has been reduced over the years, but it remains consistently able to deliver victory to the party’s candidates, and it stands to reason that it could be more resilient than the Labour support base following the introduction of a Liberal candidate. As a result, the Emperor Mother goes into 2017 in a strong position. Her manifesto was targeted at her traditional supporters particularly in the provinces, promoting family values, although she did not have much to offer for other sections of the electorate in the territories and elsewhere. The manifesto, whilst not as ambitious as the Liberal Party’s, carefully outlined a number of proposals and, perhaps critically, described why those policies would be beneficial for the Empire. In a similar vein, her election interview came across as thoughtful and confident, something that the other two candidates seemed to be sorely lacking. The Moderates have stuck to their guns and maintained the stance that their name suggests, and although this many not be particularly inspiring, it is a tried and tested approach which has worked in the past.

Finally, we should discuss the candidate who is perhaps the underdog in this election, Prince Jake. As the first ever Liberal Party candidate in a National Election, his chances of success are quite hard to predict. Although he has youth on his side and could be seen as a fresh face, it’s also hard to deny his relative lack of experience compared to the other two candidates: the incumbent Prime Minister and a former Prime Minister. Prince Jake has been Minister of Defence in McKenna’s Cabinet for the past year as part of the grand coalition. The Liberal Party manifesto, written by Emperor Adam I, is full of radical proposals such as massively reducing the size of the Cabinet by merging government departments together, hosting an intermicronational summit in either London or Birmingham, and creating one or more universities to teach skills relevant to Adammia. Whilst there is no doubt that there will be sections of the electorate who will be excited by this vision for the Empire which is quite different from the more traditional Labour and Moderate manifestos, as Prince Jake’s recent interview has shown, the Liberal candidate himself could present problems. There were two parts of his interview which really stuck out to us. The first was his answer on hypothetically legalising cannabis – a straight no. Both McKenna and the Emperor Mother said they would be open to allowing medicinal use of cannabis – does this mean that they are more liberal than the Liberal candidate? Or is it this more likely answer – that Prince Jake’s youth and comparatively low level of education mean that he is simply less informed about political issues? It’s worth noting that Prince Jake does not seem to be at odds with the Liberal manifesto – he voted for it at the Liberal Party conference last month, and in his interview he stressed his close ties with the Emperor, the party’s president and the author of the manifesto. However, far more worrying was his answer to the final question, in which he stated that “I don’t understand a lot of this,” seemingly referring to Adammic politics in general. This line is particularly embarrassing for the Liberal campaign team, who will now no doubt be regretting not giving Prince Jake more media training. The pre-election interview has left Prince Jake’s lack of experience glaringly obvious. However, backed by a radical manifesto, and with the possibility of significant sections of the electorate looking for an alternative from the old Moderate-Labour dichotomy, he shouldn’t be written off just yet.

Now we will go through each territorial subdivision and analyse how they might vote tomorrow.

Primoria: This is one of the few areas where the Liberals have a good chance. This is Prince Jake’s home province, and half of the province’s residents are Liberal Party members. He should be able to pick up at least two votes here, and if he has a particularly good day he could even pick up all four, as McKenna did last year. The other two parties may be able to get out one or two votes between them.

Maternia: The home province of both the Moderate and Labour candidates, we think that they will both get one vote each here.

Tytannia: The capital province’s sole resident is a Labour member, so this should be an easy single vote for them.

Watertopia: If this province is also divided along party membership lines, expect one Moderate and one Liberal vote.

Myway: Half of Myway’s residents are Liberal members, so they should get a good showing here and pick up a couple of votes. By the same standard, Labour should pick up another vote, and the fourth vote is up in the air, although the Moderates stand a good chance of getting it.

Alluria: As one of the new subdivisions which has joined the Empire in the past year, Alluria is hard to predict. What we do know is that Alluria’s residents are university students, and their support for Jeremy Corbyn’s UK Labour Party could translate across to Adammia, possibly giving Labour a couple of votes here. The Liberals are also in a good position to gain one or two, and the Moderates may pick up one if they’re lucky, although we don’t expect that this will really be their territory.

Dearneland: Dearneland is also hard to predict – it voted Moderate last year but voted Liberal in the Delegate of the Colonies by-election. We’re going to hesitantly say Moderate for now.

El Grandens, Kappania and Midgard: We have grouped these three territories together as they all fall under the banner of the Adammic National Party voting bloc. Without a candidate of their own, the ANP will likely collectively back one of the other candidates, and we think the Moderates are their most likely choice. Expect at least two Moderate votes from these territories, if not all three. The Liberals, the ANP’s old enemies, are likely to do poorly here.

Pererria: As another one of the new territories, Pererria is also hard to predict. What we do know is that Pererria’s sole voter is a member of the UK Liberal Democrats, so this could translate across to the Liberals – although this is speculative guesswork at best.

Non-territorial citizens: This includes the Ordo Vladius and the residents of former territories who have maintained their citizenship. We’re expecting around six or seven votes to come in here, and we think the Moderates could do pretty well, gaining three or four of them, with the Liberals and Labour left to fight over the rest.

Now for our final prediction. We think that Emperor Mother Jayne stands the best chance of winning the election, with the other two candidates fighting for a close second. In reality, this election is too close to call yet. With a sample size so small – less than 30 citizens are eligible to vote – surprises can easily happen. Don’t forget last year, when early on it seemed as if the Moderates were doing really well, until Labour won all four votes in Primoria and drew even; they went on to win that election. However, all that aside, our final predictions are as follows, within around +/- 4 votes:
MOD 12
LAB 8
LIB 10

In 24 hours time, we will know how close our predictions have been, and we will either know for certain or have a pretty good idea of who the next Prime Minister of the Empire of Adammia will be. Remember – get out and vote tomorrow!

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