National Election 2017 – Post-election Analysis

Adam I, Editor

ADAMSVILLE, Primoria – It’s the day after Prince Jake’s surprise victory in the National Election and we’re now going to break down the results subdivision by subdivision, to find out what the Liberals did right and what the other parties got wrong.

DHB7YXaXkAA4vNs.jpg large
Polling station in Imperial City, Tytannia.

With only two votes between the Liberals and the Moderates, we can all agree that the result could easily have been very different. There were two key factors which pushed the results in Prince Jake’s favour. The first was the seemingly arbitrary decision by the ANP to endorse him, giving him a couple more votes than we were expecting him to get. However, Emperor Mother Jayne could still have tied him, or even won herself, if it hadn’t been for lower turnout in areas which should have supported her. Midgard, for example, had 0% turnout and its sole resident is a former Borealian – people who historically backed the Moderates. Why these two or three missing Moderate supporters didn’t vote remains a mystery, but it is clear that they cost the Emperor Mother the election.

One of the more dramatic stories of the election is the huge collapse in support for Labour’s then-incumbent Prime Minister, Sir Paul McKenna, who went from 52.2% last year to just 16.7% this year. We knew that the introduction of a third candidate would split the vote shares of both the Moderates and Labour, and we also suspected that Labour would be the worst hit, but the swing from Labour to Liberal was much more significant than any of us were expecting. For the most part, the Moderates held steady; though they lost votes in Myway and Maternia, these were partially offset by gains in places like Primoria. Their support base in Watertopia, Dearneland and the non-territorial citizens remains mostly intact. Labour were decimated in areas which turned out for them last year; from winning all four of Primoria’s votes in 2016, this year they won just one. Watertopia, Kappania and the non-territorial citizens also abandoned Labour in large numbers, and it was mainly at the benefit of the Liberals.

What does this tell us? It seems that the electorate has become polarised between the more traditional Moderates and the radical Liberals. Whilst both parties are economically centrist, they both have very different values – the Moderates have a family-driven agenda, whereas the Liberals are concerned with individual freedoms as well as being far more imperialist than the other parties. Labour did little to set themselves apart from these two sides; policy-wise they could almost be described as “Moderate-lite”. We would argue that Labour have some serious work to do distinguishing themselves from the other two parties if they want to win again.

Liberal support in Primoria was towards the lower bound of what we were expecting; had they tried harder they could probably have won more than just two votes there. In the end, there was quite a spread of support, though with the Liberals on top as anticipated.

Maternia was most notably lacking in support for McKenna. Mathematically, we can infer that McKenna did not vote for himeself, a curious decision. Was he deliberately trying to not win the election?

The results in Tytannia, Watertopia, Myway and Dearneland were pretty much exactly as we predicted. El Grandens and Kappania – the ANP heartlands – raised eyebrows by choosing to support Prince Jake, the candidate for their old enemies the Liberal Party. If history is to be believed, the ANP may now expect something in return for their support, and will likely become angry if the government does not deliver. However, the Liberals – Adammia’s most progressive party – will probably be reluctant to be seen as relying on the “alt-right” ANP for support. There is no known deal of any sort between the two parties, and the Liberals will not be under any obligation to appease the ANP, though this could easily backfire at the next election if the ANP switch sides.

We were surprised that Midgard had 0 turnout and, as mentioned earlier, this seems to have harmed the Moderates. We hesitantly suggested that Pererria might vote Liberal and this was indeed the case.

That just leaves the non-territorial citizens. Although four of them voted for McKenna last year, this year he got nothing from them, and they account for a large part of his drop in votes. This demographic has in fact shrunk over the past year and their turnout was down, so they’re not as important in deciding the result as they have been in the past. The Moderates did well here – better, in fact, than last year – whilst the Liberals picked up another single vote.

Now the question is where do we go from here? The biggest issue that the Liberals had with their campaign was the obvious inexperience of Prince Jake. If his party gives him some proper media training, he may be able to deliver a more professional campaign next time round with the aim of solidifying the Liberal Party’s weak hold on power. If the Moderates want to overtake their rivals and once again return to the top, they will have to go on the offensive and become more critical of the new government. They’ll have to make some noise and inspire their supporters to turn out for the next election where they didn’t this time, as well as hopefully recruit some new supporters. Labour, meanwhile, have a lot of work cut out for them; as we already said, they need to distinguish themselves from the other two parties and forge a new identity in order to stay relevant. Adammia’s demographics are constantly in a state of flux as new territories come and go, and this will provide parties both new and old with opportunities to find new supporters. It is expected that over the coming year, the Empire will significantly expand its operations in the student community of the University of Birmingham. The political parties of Adammia face the challenge of balancing these newcomers and their traditional supporters in the old provinces.

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s