Politics

Shock landslide Storm Party victory, Juliano Saunders to be Prime Minister

Adam I, Editor

SERKATIA – With all but three subdivisions declared, the current figures are showing a landslide victory for Sir Juliano Saunders’ Storm Party in the National Election, with 55% of first preferences, ahead of incumbent PM Lord Helliker of the Liberal-Moderates on 29% and Lord Maude’s Labour Party on 16%.

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It is now all but certain that Sir Juliano Saunders will be Adammia’s fifth Prime Minister.

Although it is still mathematically possible for Helliker or even Maude to win if the remaining six votes force a count of second preferences, the chances of this happening are tiny. The Office of State hasn’t officially declared Saunders the winner yet for this reason, but it is difficult to imagine any reasonable scenario which would allow Helliker to bridge the gap.

This result is a far cry from what the opinion polls were suggesting as recently as last night, which had the election down as too close to call. The result is particularly appauling for the Liberal-Moderate Party, which received fewer first preferences than its number of actual party members – meaning that several members of the LMP voted against their own candidate. Were they disgruntled over the recent merger?

Clearly, there are a lot of questions to be asked in the aftermath of this historic result. How will a government which is openly hostile to the Emperor’s authority actually function? Why were the opinion polls so wrong? What will the new Cabinet and the Budget look like? We can expect answers to those questions over the coming days and weeks – the Express will be publishing a full post-election analysis once the official final result is announced.

Statements from all three candidates are expected at some point in the next 24 hours.

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Election 2018: Polling Day (live updates)

Adam I, Editor

15:40
SERKATIA – Polls have opened across the Empire for Adammia’s seventh National Election. Votes are slowly coming in and the tiny territory of Midgard has become the first subdivision to declare its first preferences, casting a single ballot in favour of Sir Juliano Saunders of the Storm Party. Midgard is one of the last remaining strongholds of the ANP, so their backing of the anti-establishment Storm is not a surprise.

Ballot papers will be delivered to Alluria soon.

20:52
SERKATIA – Dank-upon-Bourn has become the second division to declare, again casting a single first preference for Saunders. This is another expected result, after the province’s Councilor, Dank Party leader Lady Hermione Peace, endorsed Saunders after withdrawing from the election.

Alluria and Serkatia are expected to declare within the next hour or two.

21:58
SERKATIA – Serkatia has declared with another unsurprising result – two first preferences for Helliker and one for Maude, showing the province has voted cleanly down party membership lines. Most ballots for Alluria have now been collected, although officials are waiting for a final ballot before announcing the result there.

The results so far don’t tell us much – the biggest declarations to watch out for will be Alluria and the non-territorial citizens.

22:15
SERKATIA – Alluria has declared, and it’s a pretty remarkable result – 6 first preferences for Saunders, compared to just one for Maude and zero for Helliker. This completely swings the election in Saunders’ favour; it is now likely that he is going to lead first preferences and the question is whether or not Helliker will be able to get enough Labour second preferences to catch up.

00:22
SERKATIA – The midnight declarations have been absolutely shocking. Firstly, in Greater Tytannia, votes were distributed fairly evenly between the parties, with the Liberal-Moderates performing worse than expected; they tied with 2 votes with Labour, with Storm picking up an extra single vote. Then, the non-territorial citizens declared with a huge 8 first preferences for Saunders, ahead of Helliker with 5 and Maude with 1.

The current totals are:
Helliker (LMP): 9 (29.0%)
Maude (LAB): 5 (16.1%)
Saunders (STM): 17 (54.8%)

Yet to declare are Myway, El Grandens and Kappania, who have 24 hours to do so. If the conditions are right, Helliker could still yet force a count of second preferences, but even then the gap is almost impossible to bridge, and as it stands Saunders has an absolute majority of votes. Nobody expected to see these words, but we have before us a Storm Party landslide.

Election 2018: Pre-election analysis and final opinion poll: LMP 40% STM 37% LAB 23%

Adam I, Editor

SERKATIA – In just a few hours time, polls will be opening in what everyone can agree is the most hotly-contested National Election in Adammic history. Incumbent Prime Minister Lord Helliker of the Liberal-Moderate Party will battle it out with Sir Juliano Saunders of the populist, anti-establishment Storm Party, with Labour’s Lord Maude as the underdog. In this piece, we’ll be analysing the whole campaign in detail: the candidates, the manifestos, the interviews, the subdivisions.

Our final opinion poll of the campaign has found that the Liberal-Moderates lead with 40%, closely followed by Storm on 37%. This translates to just a one-vote difference on first preferences, meaning that the election is almost certainly going to be decided by second preferences. Labour trail behind on 23%. If our polling is correct, in a nation with a population of just 45, every single vote is going to count tomorrow.

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National Election first preference voting intentions. Fieldwork 19 Oct.

The story of this campaign is dominated by the astonishing rise of Sir Juliano’s Storm Party. Not since they heyday of the ANP has Adammia seen such a unified and determined political force. By recruiting several dissatisfied politicians and citizens to his side, Saunders has succeeded where other opposition leaders have failed – Storm has become more than just a one-man party. Storm activists have worked together in a way which has never been seen before in Adammic politics – liking and commenting on each others’ posts in the Empire of Adammia Facebook group, and co-ordinating their attacks on Lord Helliker’s government.

The Storm Party kicked off this campaign – they were the first to publish their manifesto, and they controlled the topics of debate for much of the campaign. They have successfully made accountability and democratic reform key issues which have had to be addressed by all the parties standing in this election. So what do the Storm Party actually stand for? At the heart of their beliefs is a desire to take power away from the “elites” – usually represented by the Emperor and Lord Helliker – and giving that power back to the people. They have promised to hold a referendum on the Emperor’s powers and to investigate what they call “cider corruption”.

The Storm Party’s manifesto is vague, and it has not been especially keen to elaborate on some of the points it makes. What specific imperial powers will be subject to referendum? What nations will trade deals be persued with? How will the gift bags be funded? What evidence actually is there for a “cider stash”? The Storm Party will have to answer these questions if it gets into government, but for now the party’s supporters seem happy to get behind its principles and worry about the details later.

There can be no doubt that Saunders is an incredibly charismatic leader, and he has worked hard to build connections with dissatisfied voters. His party has an open democratic structure, and many of its policies were suggested by its supporters. This has allowed Saunders to build up a solid campaign team and a base of hardcore voters, mostly those who are active in the Adammic Facebook group. The big question is whether Saunders will be able to get support from further afield. The more apolitical regions of the Empire – Alluria, Greater Tytannia – will most likely be judging candidates based on their manifestos and interviews. Notably, Saunders refused to take part in an interview with the Adammic Express, the first National Election candidate in Adammic history to do so. For voters who haven’t been engaged with Saunders’ regular posts in the Adammic Facebook group, their first impression of the Storm Party will be a blank interview and a vague manifesto. Saunders’ efforts have taken him very far, but will they carry him to the finish line?

When the Storm Party launched its campaign, it hit the government hard over its recent resignations and the recession. The Liberal-Moderates were clearly caught off-guard, and it took them quite some time to begin their fightback. The Lib-Mods are the only party to have a written constitution and a proper conference, and this extra layer of bureaucracy hindered the party from launching its own manifesto and keeping up with the Storm campaign. The manifesto we eventually got was long and detailed, another example of the policy-drafting the Emperor did for the former Liberal leaders Prince Jake and Lord Panconi. However, even then, the party struggled to get attention for its policies. Lord Helliker has spent most of his time attempting to defend his government’s record during his first term in office, with mixed success. He has frequently cited the Free Marriage Act and legal reform as his achievements, but questions about the economy have yet to yield many convincing answers. Whilst the Lib-Mods do have a plan for ending the recession, it is complicated and is difficult to communicate to voters compared to the economic plans of the other two parties.

It took some time, but the Liberal-Moderates did eventually build up a campaign team to rival the Storm Party’s – but was it too little, too late? The main question for the Liberal-Moderate Party lies in its foundations: will the former voters of the Liberal and Moderate parties transfer across to the new party? We already know that the merger last month caused a lot of tension and resulted in a resignation from the Cabinet. The Liberals and the Moderates were both old parties, and their traditional voters have been part of Adammia for a long time – these are people living in places like Greater Tytannia, where turnout was uncomfortably low last year. Turnout is going to be crucial for the Lib-Mods. If they want to counter the Storm Party’s hardcore supporters, they need the backing of their older, less politically-active voters. They will no doubt be hoping for a smooth election process tomorrow in order to maximise turnout in the North.

And then there is the underdog, Lord Sam Maude. He is running without the support of anyone else – unlike Helliker and Saunders, he has no campaign team behind him. However, it can be argued that Maude is in a uniquely powerful position in this election. Accepting that he is unlikely to win, he has positioned himself as a compromise candidate, with his support essential to passing any Budget. In his interview, he implicitly urged his supporters to put the Liberal-Moderates as their second preference, suggesting that he would rather work with Helliker in government rather than Saunders. In a situation where every single vote counts, this could decide the election for Helliker. Maude’s manifesto is brief and lacking in detail, but his interview answers were thoughtful (albeit oddly in the third person) and, between the status quo of the Lib-Mods and the unruly populism of Storm, he may yet attract more votes than we might otherwise expect. There is certainly public appetite for reform, although it should be noted that Maude’s proposed constitutional reforms are just as radical as Storm’s, if not even more so. Labour’s result in this election is one to watch: it is a party which has surprised us before, and it could yet do so again. That being said, it cannot be denied that the party has polled poorly. Maude does not have activists backing him up, and he has put nowhere near as much effort into campaigning as Saunders or Helliker. If either of the other two candidates performs particularly badly tomorrow, he may clinch second place.

As we can discuss this election in terms of candidates, so we can also discuss it in terms of subdivisions. Of the provinces, Serkatia and Dank-upon-Bourn won’t be interesting – they will vote down party lines. Far more interesting will be Greater Tytannia and Alluria. The former is where the Lib-Mods will be hoping to source much of their support – it is home to many former Liberal and Moderate voters, but it suffered low turnout last year. It is also home to many old-school Labour voters, such as the founder of the party, Lord Colonel Hall. Alluria, on the other hand, has less issues with turnout, but its political support is fickle and could swing to any of the parties. It is known that many Allurians are left-leaning and this could benefit Labour – a particularly strong result in Alluria is probably Labour’s best hope of securing second place. But similarly, the Allurians could just as easily back Helliker or Saunders – it just depends what they make of the manifestos and the interviews.

Amongst the other subdivisions, Myway is likely to split fairly evenly amongst the parties. The old ANP heartlands of Kappania, El Grandens and Midgard will probably vote Storm, with the nationalists likely to endorse a fellow anti-establishment party. And finally, amongst abroad citizens, there will probably a split between the Lib-Mods and Storm: the Ordo Vladius will back the former with one of its own as the Lib-Mod candidate, whilst the newer abroad citizens form much of Storm’s activist base.

Comparing the two front-runners, we can evaluate their respective strengths.

The Liberal-Moderates have:
-The benefit of incumbency, and an experienced Prime Minister
-A detailed, solid manifesto
-A number of activists
-A reasonable interview performance, which Storm refused to participate in
-Lord Maude’s preference when it comes to forming a government

Storm have:
-An anti-establishment position which has decided the course of the campaign
-The backing of the Dank Party and likely that of the ANP
-A charismatic leader who has a natural talent for speaking directly to the public
-A number of hardcore campaigners

Looking at it another way, we can say there are three key factors which will decide this election:
-Labour second preferences: Lord Maude has indicated he wants to work with Helliker, but will his voters agree?
-Turnout in Greater Tytannia: The Office of State will be working hard to facilitate as high a turnout as possible, but Emperor Mother Jayne, who normally liases with these things when the Emperor is away, is on holiday in the Canary Islands, meaning somebody else will have to act as returning officer.
-Alluria: Which way will this relatively apathetic province swing?

Although the polling shows that Lord Helliker has a slight advantage, this is the first time we have attempted opinion polling for an election in Adammia and it remains to be seen how well our model will hold up. With that in mind, given the large margin of error in our polling we must say at this stage that the election is too close to call.

Election 2018 opinion poll: LMP 38% STM 38% LAB 24%

Adam I, Editor

SERKATIA – In our second opinion poll of this election season, the Adammic Express can reveal that the Storm Party has drawn level with their Liberal-Moderate rivals, following the Dank Party’s withdrawal from the election and their endorsement of Storm. Both parties are polling around 38% in first preference voting intentions for next weekend’s National Election, whilst Labour trail behind on 24%.

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National Election first preference voting intentions. Fieldwork 13 Oct.

It now looks extremely likely that this election is going to be decided by the second preferences of Labour voters. With just six days to go until the National ELection, both leading parties will no doubt be stepping up their efforts to reach out to as many voters as possible, in an election where every single vote will count. Party leaders have begun filing their nomination forms to run for Prime Minister, and the Office of State is starting to prepare to send out ballot papers across the Empire.

The Adammic Express will be conducting its traditional pre-election interviews with Lord Helliker, Sir Juliano Saunders and Lord Maude in the next couple of days.

Storm Party scores first victory in local elections

Adam I, Editor

SERKATIA – Local elections took place yesterday across the Empire, utilising AV ballots for the first time. Arguably the most significant result was the Storm Party’s solid win over the Liberal-Moderates for the seat of Delegate of Abroad Citizens.

Storm leader Sir Juliano Saunders defeated Liberal-Moderate candidate Madam Sophie Thornton by 3 votes to 1, giving the party its first ever seat on the Ruling Council – succeeding where previous populist parties such as the ANP had failed. Another surprising result came in Alluria, where the incumbent Councilor Sir Jack Sykes was defeated by 5 votes to 1 by Sir Alex Hasioszyn, running effectively as an independent under the odd description “M3g-Vill3”. Hasioszyn was previously Governor Anna Darke’s Director of Communications under Alluria’s old colonial government. Although Sykes never turned up to any Council meetings last term, Hasioszyn has reportedly said that he himself will probably not attend meetings either, which ought to have put both candidates on even footing. The persistent political apathy in Alluria means that party leaders can effectively treat Alluria’s representatives as abstentionists, similar to Sinn Féin seats in the UK Parliament, which reduces the number of seats a party or coalition needs to have a working majority.

The Emperor and Lady Peace were both elected unopposed in Greater Tytannia and Dank-upon-Bourn respectively. Lord Helliker held Serkatia by 2 votes to Lord Maude’s 1.

Once elections were finished, the Emperor issued Imperial Decree LXI, redistributing the nobility’s seats on the Council. Madam Sophie Thornton was appointed Duchess of Greater Tytannia and Madam Anna Worthington was appointed Duchess of Dank-upon-Bourn.

The final distribution of seats for VII Legislature – due to be officially opened in two weeks’ time – is:
LMP 4
STM 2
LAB 1
DNK 1
IND 2

With the Dank Party likely to be supporting any Storm-led coalition, it looks as though Labour will be effectively kingmakers in this Council. Of course, the Prime Minister will be directly elected by the people next weekend, but support in the Council will still be crucial in order to pass a Budget and other key legislation.

Overall turnout for elections was 81.3%, up from 54.8% last year. This is largely because of the new rule that candidates who stand unopposed are automatically elected, and those provinces aren’t considered when calculating turnout. In the past, an unopposed candidate would still face a poll, in which most electors wouldn’t bother voting as there was only one option on the ballot paper.

A full breakdown of results can be seen on MicroWiki here.

Liberal-Moderate Conference confirms Helliker as leader, manifesto published

Adam I, Editor

SERKATIA – Throughout Friday the 12th, the Liberal-Moderate Party has been holding its inaugural conference via Facebook. Most notably, the party’s manifesto has been published, revealing that the party will back direct democracy on local councils, as well as a sovereign wealth fund that will include a nationalised Capital Brewery. Other key policies include defining and limiting the powers of the police, introducing defamation laws in an effort to tackle fake news, and commissioning a new national anthem to be composed by an Adammic musician.

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The Liberal-Moderates’ new logo, seen for the first time today on the party’s manifesto.

The conference opened with what is believed to be the Emperor’s only major intervention in this election cycle, speaking in his capacity as the party’s acting president. For the most part, the Emperor tends to try to maintain a non-partisan image throughout election season, but the party conference is an exception. He said:
“Fellow Liberals,
Good morning and welcome to the inaugural Liberal-Moderate Party Conference. At long last, the centre ground of Adammic politics is united under one banner. Together, we will play a huge part in Adammic history in the months and years ahead. Adammia is a great nation. And, in front you you today, is a manifesto which will take Adammia to even greater heights. At five and a half years old, this Empire has seen its fair share of ups and downs. Over the past year, we have been working hard to get Adammia up and running again following a long period of stagnation and a bumpy transition of central government from Tytannia to Serkatia. Adammia is on the rise again. We are now chairing the Grand Unified Micronational again for the first time in over three years. Our population is growing – we now have a combined total of 140 full and honourary citizens. However, last year’s transition was not entirely smooth. The economy has struggled and the rule of law remains weak. This manifesto will tackle both of those issues, and more. At long last, we propose to abolish the outdated Contributions Scheme, replacing it with a nationalised Capital Brewery. This will allow us to not only eliminate the budget deficit, but use the revenue to offer grants to new, democratic local councils, improving the lives of people across the Empire. We will offer start-up equity to citizens with promising new business proposals, giving them a helping hand. We want to make Adammia a land of opportunity, and this is how we will do it. Contrast this with the pseudo-populism of the Storm Party. They offer kind words, but no practical solutions. Their manifesto is not properly costed, and it contains some worrying policies. What actually is a “national compulsory development programme?” It sounds pretty authoritarian to me – the antithesis of everything we stand for as liberals. And I can only assume that Sir Juliano’s anti-establishment rhetoric means that he isn’t very grateful for the knighthood I gave him earlier this year. Anyway, enough talk about the opposition. We’ve got an election to win and this conference is the first step of that mission.”

The conference confirmed that Lord Helliker would be the party’s prime-ministerial candidate by officially electing him as its leader, alongside the Emperor as the party’s administrative president. No nominations were received for the post of deputy leader, but Madam Sophie Thornton has been tipped for the post in the future.

Addressing the conference after his election as leader, Lord Helliker said:
“Liberals, Moderates, fellow citizens of the Empire. I am proud to stand here today as leader of the Liberal-Moderate party. We have the longest histories in this country, and we have guided it through easy years and trying times. By our combined efforts we have brought Adammia into one of its finest years. We have gained many new citizens, acquired many new lands and have made great alliances and swept the micronational stage. We have brought peace, freedom, justice and security for our Empire! But there are some who are blind to this. There are those who are dissatisfied with progress. There are those who resent His Imperial Majesty, despite what he has done for us all. There are those who would seek to impose chaos and disorder onto our proud Empire. The greatest threat to our nation’s stability since the ANP has come. A group has emerged, claiming themselves to be the Storm to wipe away the establishment. This group claims to speak for the people. This is nought but a lie. Donald Trump claimed to be a voice for the people, but he serves himself. He does not build, he destroys. He does not elevate others, he demeans them. We have seen the errors of the United States, and we must not allow them to be repeated here in Adammia. Like Trump, Juliano has claimed that he will create great trade deals, despite the fact that this is impossible. The reward is minimal, and the costs are great. I would sooner see the money that we have put to good use than wasted on useless dreams. Juliano makes promises that he cannot keep. He speaks of gift bags, but has no idea of how to fund it. He decries the recession, yet proposes no solution. He shows no interest in improving the economy, only making sure that everyone hears his voice above the others. He believes that victory goes to he who shouts the loudest. And he is loud, so that people hear what he wants them to hear while he quietly schemes ‘compulsory’ programs where he forces citizens to join the military. He would have us break our constitution and force our people to serve in the army. But why? Because Juliano not only makes false promises, but he threatens to break ones we have already made. He wants war. He has proposed to invade our allies in Wazakhstan. He has proposed to take territory by force which we cannot hope to hold. We have a period of peace and enlightenment which he will end on a whim. This cannot stand. This will not stand. Juliano has lied to the people, and he has lied to his supporters. They are innocents taken up by the promises of a demagogue, or disingenuous deceivers who hope to profit from his plans. And what of the others? The Dank Party seeks power by throwing in their lot with Juliano. Lady Peace knows she cannot win, so in a desperate bid for power has thrown in her lot with a man without principle nor dignity. As for the Labour party, they are weak. Lord Maude is respectable, but ineffectual. His economic plan is less effective than what is already in place, and he would seek to destroy the monarchy which built this Empire in the first place. None of us would be here if not for him, and it is high time that we were all reminded of what the Emperor has done for us. As for us, we are the only party serious about government. We are the bulwark that will defend the Empire against the ignorant and the greedy. We are the Liberal-Moderate party and we know not hatred nor deceit. Between fake news and populists, we are the only party being honest to our people. We will weather the storm. Our manifesto is clear, and it is strong. We will emerge from this recession stronger than before with our economic strategy. We will be giving the people the power that the Storm Party claims to provide. We will combat fake news and halt this culture of lies that the Storm Party are propagating in its tracks and we will actually protect our people by supporting the police force.”

Polls are due to open for the local elections in just a few hours. Some seats, such as Greater Tytannia, Dank-upon-Bourn and Serkatia, are foregone conclusions, but keep an eye out for Alluria, where the battle of the independents will be taking place as Sir Jack Sykes defends his Council seat from Sir Alex Hasioszyn. The main seat to watch is that of Delegate of Abroad Citizens, where Storm Party leader Sir Juliano Saunders is up against Liberal-Moderate candidate Madam Sophie Thornton. This result is expected to be close and could be an early indicator of which party has the upper hand in the run-up to the National Election in a week’s time. An opinion poll for national first-preference voting intentions will also be taking place in the Facebook group.

Election 2018: Dank Party withdraws to back Storm, Labour manifesto published

Adam I, Editor

EDGBASTON – In a shock announcement on Wednesday night, Dank Party leader Lady Hermione Peace declared that she would not be standing in the upcoming National Election, instead endorsing Sir Juliano Saunders of the Storm Party.

Lady Peace said, “After much consideration, I have decided that the #dankparty will not be putting a candidate up for Prime Minister and will instead be endorsing Juliano Saunders and the Storm Party. While people in Dank Upon Bourn can #votedank this Saturday for me as their [councilor], the party will not be standing a candidate for PM. Instead I will keep my position on the council as a development minister so that I can work hand in hand with the Storm party with Juliano if he is elected as PM to serve the people of this great micronation. The Emperor did try to bribe me by offering me Asher’s position after he resigned but I could not accept another position to support this corrupt government that I have had to suffer under as development minister, wasting my department’s funding on biscuits and not the much needed Railway to penetrate the city of Your Mum in Wazakhstan!”

It appears that the Dank Party has decided that it cannot win the election and has backed Storm in an attempt to maintain its influence in the Cabinet. This is something of a gamble for Lady Peace, who seems to be pinning her political future on a Storm Party victory. The move is bad news for the Liberal-Moderates, who only have a narrow lead in the polls. The next Adammic Express poll, due this weekend, will reveal whether the Dank Party’s withdrawal has tipped the scales in Storm’s favour, or whether the Liberal-Moderates are still leading in first preferences. Many are now beginning to seriously consider the practical reality of a Saunders administration; it has been said that the Emperor will veto any attempt to amend the Supreme Directive to significantly reduce his powers. Reportedly, the Dank Party will still be publishing a manifesto, despite its decision not to stand.

In other news, Labour leader Lord Sam Maude published his party’s manifesto on Tuesday. The manifesto pledges significant consitutional reform which would replace the current monarchy, and proposes an income tax on all citizens of up to £2 per year. At the moment, it is unclear which party Labour might be willing to form a coalition with after the election; the manifesto sets out a red line of “no coalition without constitutional reform”, which would make a deal with the Liberal-Moderates difficult, but it also suggests that a Storm Party government would “wreak havoc”.

Furthermore, the Labour plan of introducing a flat income tax will also set it apart from the Liberal-Moderates, which is understood to be eschewing an individual-based approach to the economy in favour of a more business-oriented solution. Interestingly, Labour have also sought to condemn the Liberal-Moderates for an incident which took place in June of this year, when Army Chief-of-staff General Sir Alex Read became accidentally trapped in a bathroom in Serkatia due to a faulty lock. In practice, the maintenance of the Empire’s physical estates has never been the responsibility of the Imperial Government, but instead has been the purview of landowners at the macronational level; therefore, it seems reasonable that the Liberal-Moderates will seek to blame that incident on Serkatia’s UK-based landlord.

Tomorrow, the Liberal-Moderate Party will hold its inaugural conference, which is expected to co-incide with its official campaign launch.

Election 2018 opinion poll: LMP 34% STM 29% LAB 18% DNK 18%

Adam I, Editor

SERKATIA – The Adammic Express is pleased to publish the very first election opinion poll in Adammic history. With just 11 days to go until polling day, the Liberal-Moderates narrowly lead first preference voting intentions at 34%, ahead of Storm on 29%, and with Labour and the Dank Party trailing behind both on 18%. The meteoric rise of the Storm Party over the past three days has clearly caught the other parties off guard, posing a serious threat to Lord Helliker’s re-election chances and almost eliminating any chance of the other opposition parties securing the premiership.

polling1
Adammic Express opinion poll, National Election first preferences voting intention, fieldwork 8 Oct

A result like this in the National Election would mean the Liberal-Moderates leading first preferences by a margin of just two votes, with the counting probably going all the way to third preferences. The government has been hit in recent days by multiple resignations and a dire financial report showing a second continuous year of recession, which the Storm Party has been quick to exploit. Liberal-Moderate leaders are understood to be meeting today to plan their election strategy – they will be aiming to begin a fightback against the persistent Storm attacks over the past few days. Meanwhile, the Labour and Dank parties will have to put in some serious work if they want to stay in the game. The major advantage that Storm has over the other opposition parties is that it has multiple activists launching co-ordinated campaigns on social media, supporting each other and liking each other’s posts, creating the impression of a large movement, whereas Labour and the Dank Party are only represented by lone individual leaders. The other opposition parties need to try to recruit more new members to spread their message.

Of course, before the National Election are the local elections, due in just four days time. Many of these will be a foregone conclusion; the Liberal-Moderates and the Dank Party should win Greater Tytannia and Dank-upon-Bourn respectively unopposed, whilst the Liberal-Moderates are expected to easily defeat Labour in Serkatia. The ones to watch are Alluria – where little is known about who the candidates may be and which parties they may represent – and the Delegate of Abroad Citizens, which could be a close fight between Storm and the Liberal-Moderates, if the latter is able to find a candidate.

Some notes about the methodology used in this poll: we tabulated all Adammic citizens and what we believe their voting intentions might be, based on historical records for the province they live in and their party membership. We then used a poll in the Adammia Facebook group to amend this table, if people’s expressed voting intention differed from our initial estimate. This means that the more data we gather for subsequent polls, the more accurate our estimate will become. We currently estimate that this poll has a margin of error of around 5-10%. In future, we will be trying to gather data from Alluria; it is difficult to use historic data for Alluria because the only previous National Election they participated in had an Allurian running (Lord General Panconi), which massively inflated the Liberal vote their due to his local support. We will be conducting our second opinion poll this weekend, and will use local elections as a way to remind Allurians to also vote in the opinion poll. The fact that Adammia’s population is so small means that we cannot use standard statistical models to estimate voting intentions based on a comparatively small sample, but it does allow us to effectively canvas the voting intention of every individual citizen.

Election 2018 latest: Bond resigns, Storm Party manifesto published

Adam I, Editor

SERKATIA – Another day closer to the elections has seen more intense campaigning. This morning, Sir Juliano Saunders’ new Storm Party published its first manifesto. Crucial points include a referendum on the Emperor’s powers and Adammic military intervention in Selly Oak, the district of Birmingham, UK which surrounds South Adammia, known for its crime rate.

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The Storm manifesto. The redacted words refer to the Emperor’s macronational address, which the Storm Party appears to be using as a synonym for the Adammic “establishment”.

The Storm Party insists that its policies are “common sense”. They do seem to have convinced Madam Anna Worthington, who previously appeared to be backing Lady Peace’s Dank Party, to switch her allegiance, due to their policy of creating an Adammic Tea Company. The manifesto is the first to be published this election cycle; Liberal-Moderate, Dank and Labour manifestos are expected to be out by the end of the week.

This evening, Colonel Sir Asher Bond created more drama by resigning as Minister of Citizenship and Information, just ten days after he was appointed to replace Sir Callum Gurr. Announcing his resignation, Bond said:
“It is with a heavy heart that I write to you now. It has come to my attention that our once great country is now being run into the ground by the so called “beige” party who rule over us. They do not consider ourselves their equals, but instead view themselves as our masters, our prison guards if you will. The Adammic military is critically underfunded and understaffed, how are we supposed to protect our borders and keep our people safe under such conditions? Furthermore, the elite continue to waste funds on cider and fancy top hats while the rest of us struggle through a recession! It is because of these reasons that I intend to resign from my post within the Adammic government, as it has become a government which no longer serves to represent the interests of people. I will continue to the fight for Adammia with my new friends in the Storm Party. It doesn’t take a weatherman to notice that the winds are changing. Can the weak beige government weather this storm? I don’t think so.”

Bond’s resignation makes him the shortest-serving Cabinet minister in Adammic history. In response to the resignation, Prime Minister Lord Helliker had this to say:
“Colonel Sir Asher Bond’s resignation is deeply disappointing and goes to show that in this moment in Adammic politics, politicians are willing to do anything to gain popularity. I was saddened by Lord Callum Gurr’s departure from the cabinet, but I understood his motives. Sir Asher’s choice was clearly made to curry favour with the Storm Party, forgetting that regardless of our politics, we are Imperial citizens and we have a duty to do our part for the good of the Empire and our fellow citizens.”

On the other hand, Saunders said:
“Inspiring speech by Asher Bond! If only the rest of the Ruling Council was as reasonable and wise! The Storm Party will offer the resources the armed forces need, so that we can ensure the security of the people from the menaces of Selly Oak.”

Bond’s successor is expected to be announced tomorrow.

Today, debate has focussed on the Emperor himself, with the Storm Party questionning his capacity to fairly run the Adammic Express and to oversee elections without bias. The Emperor has been conducting the very first Adammic opinion poll, which the Express hopes to publish tomorrow; Saunders has criticised the poll’s methodology, claiming that its use of “historical data” allows the Emperor to boost his own party’s numbers. A full justification of the methodology will be included with the poll tomorrow.

The Emperor is due to visit Alluria tomorrow to meet with residents and help them sort out their nominations for the province’s next Councilor.

Partisan rhetoric intensifies with emergence of new “Storm” party

Adam I, Editor

SERKATIA – Over the past two days, Adammic politics has kicked up into election gear with Sir Juliano Saunders founding a new populist, anti-establishment Storm Party. In his announcement to the Empire of Adammia Facebook group yesterday, Saunders viciously attacked the government’s record, accusing it of elitism during a time of recession and describing Sir Callum Gurr’s recent resignation from the Cabinet as a “heroic act”.

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The logo of Sir Juliano Saunders’ new Storm Party

Gurr already appears to have joined the Storm Party, and Delegate of Abroad Citizens Sir Asher Bond may also have joined forces with Saunders, although the size of the party so far remains unclear. After being questioned by Labour leader Lord Maude, Saunders offered a few hints as to what Storm’s policies will be: increased democracy, substantially limiting the powers of the monarchy, and expanding the armed forces.

Prime Minister Lord Helliker has been quick to defend his government, accusing Saunders of “deliberately lying to the people”. Helliker suggested that the existence of the Labour, Dank and Storm parties proves that Adammia is democractic and open to political discourse. He also stated that his government had met its goals of judicial reform and ensuring free marriage, accusing the Storm Party of offering “little of substance other than empty, if pretty, rhetoric”.

Partisan hacks on both sides have been heavily engaged with the debate on Facebook. Saunders’ party appears to rely heavily on hashtags and slogans, such as #JoinTheStorm and #NoToBeige. “Beige” has been quickly adopted by opposition activists as a derogatory term for the new Liberal-Moderate Party. Lord Helliker has sought to own the term, attempting to use the Storm Party’s own slogans against them with hashtags such as #VoteBeige and #WeatherTheStorm.

Into the carnage today waded Sir Oscar Gilmour, a long-time Moderate supporter whose allegience is currently unknown. First, he published an open letter to the Prime Minister, urging him to back out of the Liberal-Moderate merger, claiming that it was driving disgruntled moderates and liberals to the “extremist” Storm Party and the “dangerous ideologies of socialism and dankism”. He then launched an extraordinary attack piece on Saunders in a newspaper he calls The Daily Rag. Though this is an interesting first example of a newspaper in Adammia other than the Adammic Express, it was blatantly full of fake news. Saunders and other Storm activists tried to link the article to the government, suggesting that it was a sign that the new movement had made the government nervious. Lord Helliker distanced himself from the tabloid, reassuring citizens that the government had nothing to do with Gilmour’s allegations. One therefore has to wonder what exactly Gilmour’s motivations are – is he simply trying to add to the chaos?

Whilst the social media war continues, many voters will no doubt be keen to know what the parties’ policies are. We can expect answers to those questions in the coming days, with the Liberal-Moderate manifesto due to be voted on at the party’s inaugural conference on Friday, and Labour, Dank and Storm manifestos also due to be published this week. There have been suggestions that opinion polls of the Adammic populace may be carried out in the run-up to the election.