Adam I, Editor
TURING, Lagentia – Following last weekend’s general election, the Liberal-Moderates have three out of six seats on the Ruling Council, having won 39% of first preferences. The Radical Left Party, led by current prime minister Lord James Green following his split from the Lib-Mods on the eve of the election, won 30% of first preferences, but only have a single seat. The acting leader of the Lib-Mods, Lord Charles Michael, is likely to be put forward by the party for a Ruling Council vote in the coming days which would see him replace Lord Green as PM, returning to the premiership after he was ousted by the Botanical Coalition in 2020.
Adammia’s full citizens went to the polls for the first time in over two years last weekend – have they finally delivered the Lib-Mods the mandate they’ve been looking for?
Six candidates – two Lib-Mods, two Radical Left, one Independent Party and one independent proper – contested the three national seats up for grabs via the STV system. 23 votes were cast in total – a turnout of 46%, this is lower than any previous contested election, but also higher than the referendum four weeks prior which approved the new electoral rules. Lord Green for the RLP and the Lib-Mod Minister of Citizenship and Information Sir Ned Hilton topped the poll with 5 votes apiece on the first round, just shy of the election quota of 6. With just 2 first preferences, Lord Green’s communications director, Lord Joe Norris, was the first to be eliminated. His second preferences transferred to Lord Green and secured the incumbent PM’s election as the RLP’s first public representative by getting him up to the quota.
At the second round, however, there was an awkward tie, with three candidates – Lord Michael, Alex Lloyd of the Independent Party, and the independent Col. Sir Will McCracken – all on 4 votes. In accordance with the rules, one of them was eliminated randomly; this happened to be Col. McCracken. This was a massive stroke of luck for the Lib-Mods, as all of McCracken’s second and third preferences went to Lord Michael, making him the second to be elected. Michael’s surplus then helped Hilton get over the line, with Lloyd being the last to be eliminated.
Of course, this only accounts for half of the seats. There are also the provincial representatives – an elected councilor for Greater Tytannia, and unelected nobles for Corellia and Sheaffia. In Corellia, Duchess Lucy Griffiths holds the rump Storm Party’s last seat, whilst in Sheaffia, Duchess Sophie Thornton sits as an independent, having previously been a Lib-Mod and a Red Green Alliance minister. Lib-Mods in Greater Tytannia ensured that the province adopted election procedures last week, and then fielded Emperor Mother Jayne as the sole candidate for that election; the Emperor Mother joins the two nationally-elected Lib-Mods and gets the party to the brink of an overall majority. The Express understands that the Lib-Mods have the numbers on paper to pull a similar trick in Sheaffia, but have been unable to organise effectively in that province, so it remains in independent hands for now.
Although the Lib-Mods are technically one short of an overall majority, the opposition to them is fragmented, and they could probably govern with exactly half of the seats, as it would take the RLP, Storm and the independent Lady Thornton all joining forces to block Lib-Mod legislation. Even then, in the event of a tied vote, the Emperor, as the chair of the Ruling Council, would have the casting vote, and it is unclear whether he would follow Speaker Denison’s Rule or simply vote with the party of which he is president. Furthermore, Lady Thornton is one of the less active parliamentarians, and whilst given her past with the Lib-Mods and the left-wing RGA it is unclear whether she would side with her old party or with the RLP, as stated earlier, the Lib-Mods do theoretically have the numbers in Sheaffia to force her removal – something which they could do at any time. Therefore, it is almost certain that the Lib-Mods will continue to govern.
The three-way tie at the second round of the national vote does raise the prospect of this election having gone very differently for the Lib-Mods had it been Lord Michael who had been randomly eliminated at that stage. Certainly it would have dispelled any chance of Lord Michael returning as PM – but even then it wouldn’t necessarily have been game over for the Lib-Mods. It is likely that Lord Michael’s votes would have transferred to Col. McCracken, someone who is generally seen as a more centre-right figure, possibly more willing to support a moderate government than an expressly radical left one (indeed, the Express understands that the Lib-Mod leadership were urging their members to put McCracken as a third preference for exactly this reason). In the absence of Lord Michael, it would likely have fallen to Sir Ned Hilton to pick up the reins and negotiate with McCracken and others to form a government; Hilton, a popular figure cross-party (with the possible exception of Storm), would probably have achieved this. So, whilst they have been lucky, luck is not the main reason for the Lib-Mods’ success – at the end of the day they led substantially on vote share, and are better organised in the provinces. Whilst the Radical Left Party should not be dismissed – they have taken much of the Lib-Mods’ best talent in the form of Lord Green’s policy expertise and Lord Norris’ communications skills – they do not yet have the broad membership and robust institutions of the Liberal-Moderates.
So, having avoided personal humiliation at the hands of the RNG, Lord Charles Michael is set to return to the stage. If successfully nominated by the Council after it convenes for its State Opening next Monday, he will become the third PM to serve more than one term, and the second to return to the office for a non-consecutive term after Lord Saunders. He first came to power in 2019 after the first election to the now-defunct House of Citizens, at a time when Adammic politics was defined by sharp tension between populists and monarchists. Cross-party motions on climate change and supporting the Black Lives Matter movement passed during his first term helped to defuse much of this tension, but much of his government’s plans were cut short by the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic. His most significant action as PM was jointly with the Emperor declaring Adammia’s first ever national state of emergency in March 2020, in response to the virus.
The Lib-Mods are due to hold an emergency conference on Saturday the 10th to formally elect a new permanent leader following Lord Green’s departure; given their success in the election, it is likely that Lord Michael will come back full time. Furthermore, with much of the political opposition to Wazakhstan having long-since evaporated, Sir Ned Hilton is well-placed for a senior position – possibly replacing Lord Michael as deputy leader. With only half the seats and a revived opposition in the form of the Radical Left Party, power for the Lib-Mods may not be straightforward – but it is on the cards.
Adammic Express 